Analyzing CFTC Data on Silver and Gold: Swap Dealers Versus Managed Money Positions

The latest CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (COT) report offers a clear snapshot of how major market players position themselves in gold and silver futures. This data focuses on two key groups: Swap Dealers, often bankers or hedgers, and Managed Money, which includes large institutional investors such as hedge funds, asset managers, and commodity trading advisors (CTAs). Understanding their positions helps reveal market sentiment and potential price movements in these precious metals.

This post breaks down the January 2026 data for COMEX gold and silver futures, showing how these groups hold long and short contracts, their net positions, and the notional values involved. We’ll explore what these numbers mean for the market and investors.

What the CFTC Data Shows for Gold Futures

Gold futures on COMEX represent contracts for 100 troy ounces each. As of January 13, 2026, total open interest stood at 527,455 contracts, roughly 52.75 million ounces of gold.

Swap Dealers’ Positions in Gold

• Long contracts: 83,382 (8.34 million ounces)

• Short contracts: 380,488 (38.05 million ounces)

• Net position: -297,106 contracts (net short 29.71 million ounces)

• Notional value: Approximately $39 billion long and $179 billion short, resulting in a net short exposure of $140 billion

  
  

Swap Dealers hold a significant net short position in gold futures. This means they have sold more contracts than they have bought, often to hedge physical gold holdings or manage risk. Their large short exposure suggests they expect or are protecting against a price decline.

Managed Money’s Positions in Gold

• Long contracts: 158,825 (15.88 million ounces)

• Short contracts: 24,080 (2.41 million ounces)

• Net position: +134,745 contracts (net long 13.47 million ounces)

• Notional value: Approximately $75 billion long and $11 billion short, resulting in a net long exposure of $64 billion

  
  

Managed Money investors hold a strong net long position, betting on rising gold prices. These investors include hedge funds and asset managers who speculate on price movements rather than hedging physical holdings.

What the CFTC Data Shows for Silver Futures

Silver futures on COMEX have a contract size of 5,000 troy ounces. Open interest was 151,513 contracts, about 758 million ounces.

Swap Dealers’ Positions in Silver

• Long contracts: 42,595 (213 million ounces)

• Short contracts: 97,887 (489 million ounces)

• Net position: -55,292 contracts (net short 276 million ounces)

• Notional value: Approximately $20 billion long and $46 billion short, resulting in a net short exposure of $26 billion

  
  

Similar to gold, Swap Dealers maintain a large net short position in silver futures. This reflects their role in hedging or managing risk, often balancing physical silver inventories or client exposures.

Managed Money’s Positions in Silver

• Long contracts: 74,000 (approximate, inferred from net and swap dealer data)

• Short contracts: (Data incomplete in source, but net long position is positive)

• Net position: Positive net long (exact contracts not fully detailed)

• Notional value: Positive net long exposure (exact figures not fully detailed)

  
  

Managed Money investors hold net long positions in silver, indicating bullish sentiment on silver prices. These investors typically seek to profit from price increases rather than hedge.

Gold and silver bars representing futures market positions

What These Positions Mean for the Market

The contrasting positions between Swap Dealers and Managed Money reveal different motivations and expectations:

• Swap Dealers’ net short positions suggest they are hedging against price declines or managing inventory risk. Their large short exposure can act as a counterbalance to speculative buying.

• Managed Money’s net long positions indicate optimism about price increases. These investors drive speculative demand and can influence price trends.

  
  

This dynamic often creates tension in the market. When Managed Money pushes prices higher, Swap Dealers may increase short hedges to protect physical holdings. Conversely, if prices fall, Managed Money may reduce long positions, and Swap Dealers might cover shorts.

Practical Insights for Investors

Understanding these positions can help investors interpret market signals:

• Large net long positions by Managed Money often precede upward price momentum. If these positions grow, it may signal increasing bullish sentiment.

• Significant net short positions by Swap Dealers can indicate strong hedging activity, which might cap price rises or signal caution.

• Changes in net positions over time provide clues about shifting market sentiment. For example, if Managed Money reduces longs while Swap Dealers cover shorts, prices might stabilize or fall.

  
  

Investors should watch these categories in combination with other market data, such as physical demand, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical events.

Summary

The January 2026 CFTC data shows Swap Dealers holding large net short positions in both gold and silver futures, reflecting their hedging roles. Managed Money investors maintain strong net long positions, signaling bullish bets on precious metals prices. These opposing stances highlight the balance between hedging and speculation in the futures market.

For anyone tracking gold and silver markets, following these positions offers valuable insight into market sentiment and potential price direction. Keeping an eye on how these groups adjust their holdings can help anticipate shifts and make more informed investment decisions.